There are nine NBA games today for anyone making NBA prop picks on sites like Underdog Fantasy. The Nuggets will host the Timberwolves in a Western Conference semifinals rematch from last season, which the Timberwolves won in seven games, and Minnesota has won the first two meetings at home this year. Anthony Edwards is averaging 31.5 points per game over those two contests, but his higher/lower scoring total is just 26.5 points on Wednesday. Nikola Jokic, who is listed as probable (elbow, ankle), is averaging 26.4 points, 16.2 rebounds and 10.8 assists for a P+R+A average of 53.4 over five games this month, but his P+R+A higher/lower total is only 51.5.
SportsLine’s proven model, which has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons, has simulated every Wednesday NBA game 10,000 times and revealed a projected over/under for each player in each matchup.
Below are the model’s five best NBA prop picks for Wednesday to include in NBA Underdog Fantasy prop picks.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Lower than 44.5 P+R+A The Thunder point guard leads the NBA in scoring at 32.7 points per game, but he averages 44 points+rebounds+assists this season and is coming off 25 points, three rebounds and seven assists for a 35 total against the Nuggets on Monday. The Thunder play the Celtics, who have the No. 3 scoring defense in the league (108.2 ppg) while allowing the third-fewest assists (24.1 per game).
Alperen Sengun Lower than 37.5 P+R+A The Rockets center has finished below this total in three straight games. Although the 6-foot-11 big man is averaging 10.4 rebounds per game, he’s failed to record a double-double in three of his last four contests. Houston plays the Suns, who rank 10th in total rebounding, and Phoenix hasn’t allowed at least 10 rebounds to a player besides Jokic over its last three games.
James Harden Lower than 26.5 points The 35-year-old Clippers guard is averaging 22.2 ppg this season, and although he’s Los Angeles’ leading scorer among healthy players, his assist totals have been especially dominant lately. Harden has two games with at least 15 assists over his last five contests, including having 25 points and 17 assists against the Pelicans on Tuesday. Wednesday is the second-half of a back-to-back for the veteran has gone lower than this point total in eight of his last 10 second legs of a back-to-back.
Bam Adebayo Lower than 10.5 rebounds The Heat center has finished below his total rebounds in six of his last 10 games while averaging 9.5 rebounds per contest over that span. Miami plays the Clippers, who rank third in rebounds allowed behind the physical Ivica Zubac at center.
Karl-Anthony Towns Higher than 2.5 assists The New York big man had three assists on Monday as the Knicks played their second game without Jalen Brunson (ankle) and Towns will have the ball in his hands to create for both himself and others more without Brunson. Towns has averaged at least three assists in each of his last seven seasons, including 3.1 per game this year, as a skilled passer for his size.
Want more NBA picks for tonight? You’ve seen the top Underdog Fantasy NBA prop picks for Wednesday. Now, get NBA picks for every game from SportsLine’s proven model, which has returned more than $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus season.
The Boston Celtics host the Oklahoma City Thunder Wednesday night in what has the potential to be an NBA Finals preview. Boston is the defending champion, and OKC has — far and away — been the best team in the Western Conference this season. On paper, Wednesday’s game should be one of the best games of the regular season, and while it very well could reach that level, it also has the potential of being somewhat of a watered down matchup given the guys who could be missing on both sides.
The Celtics could be without Kristaps Porzingis for the sixth consecutive game due to what he revealed is a viral illness. Porzingis is listed as questionable for the game, and was seen at shootaround, but it sounds as though he may be a game-time decision.
Porzingis’ status is up in the air, but the Thunder will for sure be without All-Star guard Jalen Williams, who picked up a hip strain in OKC’s loss to the Denver Nuggets on March 10. Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said at shootaround Wednesday morning that Williams didn’t make the trip with the team to Boston, and that there is no current timeline for a return.
The “no timeline” aspect of Daigneault’s response does raise some eyebrows, as it makes it sound as though Williams could be sidelined longer than just a game or two. If that’s the case, it could be a big blow for the Thunder.
Williams is averaging career highs across the board, and earned his first All-Star appearance. He’s proven to be the ideal secondary creator behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and is instrumental in keeping the Thunder afloat when SGA goes to the bench. With Williams sidelined, the Thunder not only lose their second-leading scorer, but also one of their best perimeter defenders. If Luguentz Dort is tasked with the toughest defensive assignment, Williams gets the second toughest, and while SGA is no slouch on the defensive side of the ball either with his long wingspan, OKC’s defense greatly benefits from having all three of those guys out there at the same time.
player headshot team logo Jalen Williams OKC • SF • #8 PPG 21.3 RPG 5.5 APG 5.3 View Profile In a matchup like the one against the Celtics Wednesday night, Williams would’ve been tasked with guarding either one of Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, whichever one Dort doesn’t defend. And now with him out for the game, Daigneault will have to look to someone else to pick up one of those two scoring giants. Cason Wallace could be the answer, though he gives up size to both Tatum and Brown, but is a pesky perimeter defender. And as good as Wallace is as a defender, it still leaves you without another 20+ scorer on the other end of the floor.
Williams just does so much on both ends of the floor for OKC, that if he misses extended time, it’s going to require some other guys to step up because there isn’t much more SGA can do to lead this team. He’s already leading the league in scoring at 32.7 a night, is locked in on the defensive end and gets his teammates great looks. Williams is a pressure reliever for Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder as they know he can go get a bucket himself whenever SGA is being hounded by defenders. Without his presence there, it’s going to make things a bit more difficult for the Thunder. Which is what happened on Monday against the Nuggets who were able to come away with a 140-127 win after Williams played just 14 minutes.
In the short term, there shouldn’t be too much concern about Williams missing some time as the Thunder have all but officially locked up the top seed in the West. But if he is going to be out several weeks, which could bleed into the start of the playoffs, there should be some level of concern for OKC. Even with all the depth the Thunder possess, they don’t have anyone who can easily replace Williams’ production on both sides of the ball.
We’ll have to wait and see for a more official update on Williams’ status, because if we’re talking a couple weeks of missed time, it will be pushing it real close to the postseason. That’s certainly not an ideal place to be when a fully healthy Thunder team is equipped to win a championship this season.
A potential NBA Finals preview will take place on Wednesday when the defending champion Boston Celtics (47-18) host the West-leading Oklahoma City Thunder (53-12). The home team has prevailed in the last five meetings between these two, which plays a role in Boston being 2.5-point home favorites in the latest NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, with the total at 229.5. The Thunder prevailed 105-92, in OKC when they met on Jan. 5. Jalen Williams (hip) is out and Jayson Tatum (knee) is questionable, but these teams’ other All-Stars, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jaylen Brown, are good to go. They could be focal points for anyone filling out NBA props and NBA parlay picks. Before making any Thunder vs. Celtics bets or NBA same-game parlay picks, make sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model has simulated Celtics vs. Thunder 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA same-game parlay picks and betting predictions. Here are the three best bets for a Celtics vs. Thunder SGP, that results in over a 5-1 payout, per the model:
Under 229.5 (-110 at FanDuel) The last matchup between these squads saw just 197 combined points scored, easily going under the total of 225. The 92 points put up by Boston is their fewest all season as it fell victim to OKC’s stifling defense. The Thunder lead the NBA in defensive rating, field goal percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, and they give up the second-fewest points per game. The Under has hit in three of the last four OKC games, and the Under has gone 8-4 over Boston’s last dozen contests. The model projects the Under to hit in Wednesday’s game in well over 50% of simulations. If you’re looking to bet this line individually, DraftKings Sportsbook has a better price at -108.
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Jrue Holiday Over 3.5 assists (+130 at FanDuel) Holiday’s past performance indicates one should jump on Over 3.5 assists as he’s posted at least four assists in an astounding 16 straight games versus Oklahoma City. You have to go back to 2017 when he was with the Pelicans to find the last time the two-time All-Star had under 3.5 assists against OKC. Despite Boston scoring a season-low of 92 points versus the Thunder in their January meeting, Holiday produced six assists, and he has just four games all year with more dimes. OKC allowed four different Denver Nuggets to have at least four assists in their last game on Monday, as the model projects Holiday to finish with 4.0 assists in this plus-money NBA prop.
Same-game parlay odds at FanDuel: +579
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